Terror group fills Syria rebels' space

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• U.S. declared a key opposition group in Syria a terrorist organization


• New report says it is the most effective group in the opposition, with 5,000 fighters


• Nada Bakos: The group has ties to al Qaeda but also seeks to provide social services


• She says the chances are slim that it could be persuaded to give up radical goals

Editor's note: Nada Bakos is a former Central Intelligence Agency analyst.

(CNN) -- In the midst of the struggle against Bashar al-Assad's government stands Jabhat al-Nusra, recently designated by the U.S. State Department as a foreign terrorist organization.

A new report by the Quilliam Foundation in London says the organization is the most effective arm of the Syrian insurgency and now fields about 5,000 fighters against the Assad regime.

Practically speaking, the terrorist designation means little that is new for the immediate struggle in Syria. Shortly after al-Nusra claimed credit for one of its early suicide bombings in January 2012, the Obama administration made known al-Nusra's connection to al Qaeda in Iraq, a group with which I was intimately familiar in my capacity as an analyst and targeting officer at the Central Intelligence Agency.

Nada Bakos

The administration's position was reinforced when Director of National Intelligence James Clapper one month later testified in front of the Senate Armed Services Committee that "...we believe al-Qaeda in Iraq is extending its reach into Syria."

Analysis: Study shows rise of al Qaeda affiliate in Syria

Al-Nusra is filling a power vacuum through charitable efforts to galvanize local support and generating influence among Syrians. In light of al-Nusra's influence in Syria, the real question is not so much about the scope and scale of al-Nusra currently, but rather how should the United States respond to its rise, particularly after al-Assad's eventual exit?

Historically, the U.S. government seemed to believe that as soon as people are given the chance, they will choose and then create a Jeffersonian democracy. Then we are surprised, if not outraged, that people turn to organizations such as Hamas, Hezbollah or the Muslim Brotherhood in electoral contests. These organizations often provide the basic necessities that people need to survive: food, water, medical care, education and security.

As ideologically distasteful as we might find them, they are often doing things corrupt, weak or failing governments do not: providing the basic necessities that people need to survive (let alone create the conditions that enable people to aspire to thrive).

Why does al-Nusra keep quiet about its ties to al Qaeda in Iraq? The documents pulled from the Abottabad raid that killed Osama bin Laden shed light on his awareness that the al Qaeda brand had been deteriorating.

Bin Laden urged regional groups, "If asked, it would be better to say there is a relationship with al Qaeda, which is simply a brotherly Islamic connection, and nothing more," according to CNN. Bin Laden and Ayman al-Zawahiri had criticized the Jordanian-born founder and leader of al Qaeda in Iraq, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, for his killing of civilians and lack of political acumen to win public support.

Talk about al Qaeda seems distant. It was a bogeyman made real in 1993 when it unsuccessfully attacked the World Trade Center and terrifyingly tangible in 2001 when its operatives succeeded in destroying the twin towers and expanded their attacks to the Pentagon and the air over Pennsylvania. Its looming shadow has since faded from the public eye, particularly with the death of bin Laden. Its vision and ideology, however, continue to have a strong appeal.

Now that al Qaeda central has a less visible role, what makes players like al-Nusra and al Qaeda in Iraq threats? Even today, after Zarqawi's death, al Qaeda in Iraq has managed to continue to wreak havoc in Iraq and in the region through an autonomous, adaptable structure.

Al-Nusra has declared itself a player in the fight for a global jihad, a bold statement for what is today a localized group . Even small groups, however, have the potential to disrupt regional stability and complicate America's pursuit of its national security objectives—a fact I learned firsthand tracking and trying to stem the rise, influence and efficacy of al Qaeda in Iraq in the aftermath of the U.S. invasion of Iraq.

Zarqawi, until his death in 2006, was able to confound U.S. forces and attack Jordan by attracting recruits from North Africa (including Libya), Central Europe, Jordan and Syria.

Some of Zarqawi's earliest recruits were veterans of the Syrian Muslim Brotherhood, an organization that lashed out against the Syrian government during the 1980s. Captured records from a raid near the city of Sinjar, Iraq, indicated that during the 2006-2007 time frame, 8% of al Qaeda in Iraq operatives were Syrians. The percentage likely ebbed and flowed as the group formed, became influential and waned, but it suggests that there was no shortage of recruits amenable to engage in religious conflict in Syria as recently as 5-10 years ago.

The most striking thing about the captured records, however, is that it appears almost every foreign fighter entering Iraq to join al Qaeda in Iraq came through Syria. As a targeter, I can tell you that facilitation networks are key: they are the means by which groups such as al Qaeda in Iraq are funded, supplied and sustained. During the Iraq war, Zarqawi's top aides in Syria played a critical role in recruiting, funding and operational planning outside Iraq.

One of the things U.S. officials and the international media should watch for is how al-Nusra uses its terrorist designation: If it seeks to use the declaration to burnish its jihadist credentials, it might be able to bolster the image of the organization in the eyes of the extremist community and parlay that recognition into larger, or steadier, streams of funding—a development that will make the group more viable over the long-term or allow it to expand its operations or influence in the short- to mid-term.

An important differentiator between al Qaeda in Iraq and al-Nusra is one of its tactics: Zarqawi made a practice of indiscriminately killing Iraqi civilians, effectively terrorizing the Iraqi population, especially the Shiite minority. Zarqawi, despite identifying with al Qaeda, had a much thinner theological basis than al Qaeda central.

Key figures at al Qaeda central such as bin Laden and Zawahiri argued with Zarqawi over his tactics, complaining that alienating mainstream Muslims would not help achieve the over-arching goal of instilling Sharia law.

Al-Nusra is using some of the same tactics as al Qaeda in Iraq (e.g., suicide bombings, kidnappings and car bombs), but it appears to be trying to strike a balance Zarqawi was unwilling to make: Not only does it seem to be avoiding alienating—if not antagonizing—the larger population, but it also is providing the people of Syria with a range of goods and services such as food, water and medical care—basic necessities that people need to survive in the best of times, let alone when their country is in the throes of a civil war.

If this becomes a trend, it might signal that al-Nusra aspires to be more like Hezbollah or Hamas, organizations that defy neat categorization based on the range of social, political and military activities they engage in and the resultant legitimacy they have in the eyes of their constituencies.

In the Syrian uprising, the opportunity for meaningful U.S. intervention might have passed: Exhaustion from operations in Iraq and Afghanistan have taken their toll on the U.S. military, have taxed the national treasury, and sapped political will, especially as the state of the economy remains at the center of the debate in Washington.

Our absence from the fight is going to cost us if the al-Assad regime fails, leaving rebel groups like al-Nusra dictating the direction, pace and scope of a new Syria.

Given that managing affairs in the Middle East has never been one of our strong suits, the question at this point should be how can the United States, particularly the Department of State, best engage groups that might be inimical to U.S. values but necessary to our interests in the Middle East? For that, I am not sure there is a clear or simple answer.

One opportunity would be if the United States uses its designation of al-Nusra as both a stick and carrot, cajoling and encouraging it to enter into mainstream politics when (or if) the Assad regime falls.

My read of al-Nusra, however, is that, like Zarqawi, it does not aspire to be a political player and is unlikely to settle for a political role in the new government. Instead, it may aim to play the spoiler for any transitional government and use its resources and political violence to empower and encourage other like-minded extremists. With time and opportunity, al-Nusra could not only add to regional instability in the Middle East, but also rekindle global jihad.

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The opinions expressed in this commentary are solely those of Nada Bakos.

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New General Assembly to face many old issues

SPRINGFIELD—

— A new Illinois General Assembly was inaugurated Wednesday, but lingering beyond the flowers, family and speeches was a host of unfinished business.

The old Legislature adjourned Tuesday without fixing the state's broken public pension system. Also left unresolved were the divisive issues of same-sex marriage, gun regulation and gambling expansion. It'll be a while before such problems are tackled — the part-time lawmakers are scheduled to go home for a few weeks before returning to the Capitol.

In the House, Speaker Michael Madigan remains in charge, as he has for all but two of the past 30 years. In the Senate, President John Cullerton starts his fifth year running the show. Both Chicago Democrats now wield veto-proof majorities after many voters throughout the state opted against the Republican alternative in November legislative races.

That new Democratic power brings added pressure to perform was not lost on Cullerton, who said his party's 40-19 advantage over the GOP is the largest in the nation and in state history.

"I know a lot of you are thinking, 'This is great. We've got 40 members. I don't have to take any tough votes,'" Cullerton told his Democrats in a decorated Senate chamber as family members were entertained by a rendition of the 1960s tune "Feeling Good."

"But if everybody thought like that, we wouldn't get anything done, would we?" he said.

Madigan, the longest-serving speaker in state history, told House members that key issues remain "terribly contentious, terribly divisive."

"We have to call upon our inner resolves to dedicate ourselves to the solution of these problems, working cooperatively with the other members of the House of Representatives and the Senate," said Madigan, who leads a 71-47 Democratic majority.

Still, Madigan gave a grave assessment of the poorly funded pensions, saying he would "emphasize the absolutely serious nature of the fiscal condition."

In the waning days of the legislative session that concluded Tuesday, Madigan made what he said was a good-faith effort to spur pension talks by lifting a demand that suburban and downstate teacher retirement costs be shifted from the state to local school districts. That's now back on the table for Madigan, who called it a "free lunch."

"Serious, serious problem, and if we're serious about solving the problem, that must be addressed," Madigan said.

The cost-shift provision is adamantly opposed by Republicans and some suburban Democrats who maintain that it will lead to local property tax increases.

After failing to come up with a pension solution before the clock ran out this week, Cullerton said that Senate Bill 1, legislation often symbolizing the top agenda item, would be a pension measure combining aspects of unresolved Senate-passed and House-sponsored plans.

"The finances of our pension system have to be addressed in a fair and constitutional manner. The issue has lingered for generations and threatens to doom future generations if something isn't done," Cullerton said.

"We are on the verge of our state budget being turned into a financial plan that funds pension benefits, not essential services. Our investments in higher, elementary and secondary education and human services are increasingly crowded out — some might say, squeezed — by our pension costs," Cullerton said in a nod to Democratic Gov. Pat Quinn, whose grass-roots pension reform movement used a cartoon mascot, Squeezy, the Pension Python.

Though Cullerton cast a vote for Senate Republican leader Christine Radogno of Lemont for Senate president, as she did for him in a symbolic display of bipartisanship, Radogno said "many people in Illinois really don't have a lot of confidence in us and hopefully we can turn that around."

"We have to come to grips with some of the very real problems that we have," she said. "The underlying pillar that will allow us to begin to address them is solving the pension problem."

House Republican leader Tom Cross of Oswego called for "incredibly bold ideas and incredibly bold solutions."

"We're facing challenges in the state that we probably haven't seen as a General Assembly since the Great Depression," Cross said.

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Swiss trains collide, 17 injured

NEUHAUSEN, Switzerland (Reuters) - Two Swiss trains collided on Thursday, injuring 17 people, none of them seriously, and closing the line near the German border, police said.

The two local trains, one travelling from Winterthur and the other from Schaffhausen, crashed just outside the Neuhausen station in northern Switzerland, not far from the German border.

Swiss railways said the line was closed and buses were carrying local passengers, while those travelling from Zurich to Stuttgart in Germany would be diverted via Basel.

Police spokeswoman Anja Schudel said 17 people had been injured and nine of them taken to hospital, but nobody was badly hurt. Everybody had been evacuated from the trains, which were carrying a total of 280 passengers, she said.

Swiss trains have a reputation for punctuality and safety, and fatal train accidents are rare.

The last major accident was in 2010. One passenger was killed and 42 were injured when one of the country's best-known tourist trains, the Glacier Express, derailed at the height of the summer holiday season.

(Reporting by Arnd Wiegmann and Emma Thomasson; Editing by Louise Ireland)

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Global shares buoyed by Alcoa earnings, dollar gains on yen

LONDON (Reuters) - World shares staged a modest recovery from two days of losses on Wednesday after aluminum giant Alcoa opened the U.S. earnings season with an optimistic outlook for world demand.

However, with European and British central banks due to hold policy meetings on Thursday, the same day Spain will test demand for its debt and China releases its latest trade data, investors were in a cautious mood.

Alcoa, the largest aluminum producer in the United States, rose 1.3 percent in after-hours trade after it reported a fourth-quarter profit in line with Wall Street expectations and revenues that beat forecasts.

The results lifted Asian stock markets and pushed Europe's FTSE Eurofirst 300 index <.fteu3> up around 0.2 percent in early trade, leaving the MSCI world equity index <.miwd00000pus> up 0.1 percent. London's FTSE 100 <.ftse>, Paris's CAC-40 <.fchi> and Frankfurt's DAX <.gdaxi> were flat to 0.2 percent higher.

U.S. stock futures were up 0.15 percent, suggesting a firmer start on Wall Street. <.l><.eu><.n/>

Corporate profits are expected to be higher than the third quarter's lackluster results, but analysts' estimates are down sharply from where they were in October.

"Expectations are quite low going into the earnings season as we saw a lot of downward guidance in the past few months. There is potential for an upside surprise to come through," said Robert Parkes, equity strategist at HSBC Securities.

SOVEREIGN DEBT TEST

In European fixed income markets German Bund prices dipped slightly as investors prepared for the government's auction of 5 billion euros' worth of new five-year bonds following successful debt sales in Austria, the Netherlands and Ireland on Tuesday.

Investors were also looking ahead to Spanish and Italian bond auctions on Thursday for the new year's first test of market appetite for peripheral euro zone debt.

The Spanish auction could also provide clues on the timing of a much anticipated request by Madrid for fresh financial aid from the ECB. [ID:nL5E9C46KK]

The dollar meanwhile climbed against the yen, moving back towards a 2-1/2 year high hit last week, on expectations of a much bolder monetary easing from the Bank of Japan at its next meeting later this month.

The U.S. currency was up 0.7 percent at 87.61 yen, above a near one-week low of 86.82 hit earlier in Tokyo.

"No one is going to want to be short yen going into the BOJ meeting," said Derek Halpenny, European head of FX research at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

Sources familiar with the BOJ's thinking told Reuters the central bank was likely to adopt a 2 percent inflation target at the meeting, double its current goal, and issue a statement with the government pledging to pursue bold monetary easing steps.

The BOJ will also consider easing monetary policy again this month, probably through a further increase in its 101 trillion yen ($1.2 trillion) asset buying and lending programme, the sources said.

The euro held steady against the dollar at $1.3080, with most analysts forecasting the European Central Bank will keep interest rates on hold on Thursday, though some believe rates will be cut later this year.

CHINA DEMAND EYED

Brent crude oil slipped around 0.3 percent to below $112 per barrel as the market awaited the latest trade data from China, the world's biggest energy consumer, due on Thursday.

"What we're seeing in the oil markets is the cautious sentiment playing up ahead of some key economic events this week," said Ker Chung Yang, senior investment analyst at Phillips Futures in Singapore.

However, iron ore jumped to its highest since October 2011, stretching a rally that has lifted prices by more than a third since December as China replenished stockpiles and as supply in the spot market remained limited.

Iron ore, a raw material used to make steel, has now risen 83 percent since falling to below $87 in September.

(Additional reporting by Nia Williams and Atul Prakash; Editing by Will Waterman)

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Judgment day for Bonds, Clemens, Sosa at Hall

NEW YORK (AP) — Judgment day has arrived for Barry Bonds, Roger Clemens and Sammy Sosa to find out their Hall of Fame fates.

With the cloud of steroids shrouding many candidacies, baseball writers may fail for the only the second time in more than four decades to elect anyone to the Hall.

About 600 people are eligible to vote in the BBWAA election, all members of the organization for 10 consecutive years at any point. Results were to be announced at 2 p.m. EST Wednesday, with the focus on first-time eligibles that include Bonds, baseball's only seven-time Most Valuable Player, and Clemens, the only seven-time Cy Young Award winner.

Since 1965, the only years the writers didn't elect a candidate were when Yogi Berra topped the 1971 vote by appearing on 67 percent of the ballots cast and when Phil Niekro headed the 1996 ballot at 68 percent. Both were chosen the following years when they achieved the 75 percent necessary for election.

"It really would be a shame, especially since the other people going in this year are not among the living, which will make for a rather strange ceremony," said the San Francisco Chronicle's Susan Slusser, president of the Baseball Writers' Association of America.

Three inductees were chosen last month by the 16-member panel considering individuals from the era before integration in 1946: Yankees owner Jacob Ruppert, umpire Hank O'Day and barehanded catcher Deacon White. They will be enshrined during a ceremony at Cooperstown on July 28.

Also on the ballot for the first time are Sosa and Mike Piazza, power hitters whose statistics have been questioned because of the Steroids Era, and Craig Biggio, 20th on the career list with 3,060 hits — all for the Houston Astros. Curt Schilling, 11-2 with a 2.23 ERA in postseason play, is another ballot rookie.

The Hall was prepared to hold a news conference Thursday with any electees. Or to not have one.

Biggio wasn't sure whether the controversy over this year's ballot would keep all candidates out.

"All I know is that for this organization I did everything they ever asked me to do and I'm proud about it, so hopefully, the writers feel strongly, they liked what they saw, and we'll see what happens," Biggio said on Nov. 28, the day the ballot was announced.

Jane Forbes Clark, the Hall's chairman, said last year she was not troubled by voters weighing how to evaluate players in the era of performance-enhancing drugs.

"I think the museum is very comfortable with the decisions that the baseball writers make," she said. "And so it's not a bad debate by any means."

Bonds has denied knowingly using performance-enhancing drugs and was convicted of one count of obstruction of justice for giving an evasive answer in 2003 to a grand jury investigating PEDs. Clemens was acquitted of perjury charges stemming from congressional testimony during which he denied using PEDs.

Sosa, who finished with 609 home runs, was among those who tested positive in MLB's 2003 anonymous survey, The New York Times reported in 2009. He told a congressional committee in 2005 that he never took illegal performance-enhancing drugs.

The BBWAA election rules say "voting shall be based upon the player's record, playing ability, integrity, sportsmanship, character, and contributions to the team(s) on which the player played."

"Steroid or HGH use is cheating, plain and simple," ESPN.com's Wallace Matthews wrote. "And by definition, cheaters lack integrity, sportsmanship and character. Strike one, strike two, strike three."

Several holdovers from last year remain on the 37-player ballot, with top candidates including Jack Morris (67 percent), Jeff Bagwell (56 percent), Lee Smith (51 percent) and Tim Raines (49 percent).

When The Associated Press surveyed 112 eligible voters in late November, Bonds received 45 percent support among voters who expressed an opinion, Clemens 43 percent and Sosa 18 percent. The Baseball Think Factory website compiled votes by writers who made their opinions public and with 159 ballots had everyone falling short. Biggio was at 69 percent, followed by Morris (63), Bagwell (61), Raines (61), Piazza (60), Bonds (43) and Clemens (43).

Morris finished second last year when Barry Larkin was elected and is in his 14th and next-to-last year of eligibility. He could become the player with the highest-percentage of the vote who is not in the Hall, a mark currently held by Gil Hodges at 63 percent in 1983.

Several players who fell just short in the BBWAA balloting later were elected by either the Veterans Committee or Old-Timers' Committee: Nellie Fox (74.7 percent on the 1985 BBWAA ballot), Jim Bunning (74.2 percent in 1988), Orlando Cepeda (73.6 percent in 1994) and Frank Chance (72.5 percent in 1945).

Ace of three World Series winners, Morris finished with 254 victories and was the winningest pitcher of the 1980s. His 3.90 ERA, however, is higher than that of any Hall of Famer. Morris will be joined on next year's ballot by Greg Maddux and Tom Glavine, both 300-game winners.

If no one is elected this year, there could be a logjam in 2014. Voters may select up to 10 players.

The only certainty is the Hall is pleased with the writers' process.

"While the BBWAA does the actual voting, it only does so at the request of the Hall of Fame," said the Los Angeles Times' Bill Shaikin, the organization's past president. "If the Hall of Fame is troubled, certainly the Hall could make alternate arrangements."

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Star Hackers: Scientists Hold 1st Astronomy ‘Hack Day’

Astronomers have a “Big Data” problem. While telescopes around the world record reams of data every day, researchers struggle to manage this surplus of information. But there is a change brewing within the astronomy community, one where researchers  assume many different roles: astronomer, hacker and communicator.

DotAstronomy, a community that bridges the gap between science research and computer coding, hosted the first “Hack Day” exclusively for astronomy in the United States, last month at the Bit.ly headquarters in New York.

The Dec. 15 event was co-sponsored by Bit.ly and Harvard‘s Seamless Astronomy Group. Participants had a single day to tackle a problem within astronomy data. The day was split into three parts: presentations of tools that some participants have been working on, hack time, and presentations of the day’s accomplishments. 

Participants came from all over the tri-state area to learn from other astronomy hackers and work on joint projects. Most of them were either professors or graduate students from NYU, Harvard, Yale or CUNY, but there were others from non-astronomy backgrounds as well. 

Many of the tools presented were frameworks to make astronomy data more manageable, often with a heavy community and open-source aspect.

For example, there was Astropy, a community-driven astronomy package; Planethunters.org, where public online users can hunt for exoplanets; the yt-project, a community-driven platform that transforms data into breathtaking graphic models, to help researchers ask better questions from their data; and an API (an interface between a user and a site’s database) where you can easily look up any celestial object’s spectral data from archives of the Sloan Digital Survey.

Hacking and camaraderie

After the main presentations, everyone grabbed a quick lunch and circled the whiteboard to pitch their hacks. They then split into groups and started exchanging ideas, debugging, and scrawling flow charts or models. Practically all the participants were acquainted with Python computer coding, but still, the best hackers quickly stood out, and many clamored for their aid. [5 Threats That Keep Security Experts Up at Night]

Demitri Muna is one of those hackers. He runs an online forum and workshop called SciCoder, teaching scientists how to efficiently work in Python. Muna is working toward a SciCoder book, which will include a free PDF for the astronomy community.

Muna worked during the hack day with Kelle Cruz from the American Museum of Natural History department of astrophysics and others to create a “SQLite” database to store brown dwarf star data that they could distribute to members’ email accounts.

“Astronomers are dealing with an embarrassment of riches in the volume of data at our fingertips, but most still work with the same tools and file formats from 25-30 years ago,” Muna said. “These tools are increasingly unable to scale to handle the data we now have. I strongly feel that better, not just more, investment into software development needs to be made in our community.”

Different worlds

In our age of social media, it’s not just about getting the data, but making it fast and convenient to use. However, many of the online tools that house the necessary astronomy data are scattered in terms of compatibility, programming interface capability, naming conventions, units used, and descriptive data. Astronomers typically have to write the same code over and over again to customize it on a case-by-case basis.

“One problem is that every sub-community [in astronomy] handles data differently, and the tools they might use are different,” said Lia Corrales, a grad student at Columbia University. “I’m working to make cross-communication between different databases easier. I work with X-ray data. I’d like to put all of [the] data together, find all the quasars and say something about the dust around each one. I’ve wasted a lot of time in the past writing the cross-communicating code manually. I learned a lot from that experience but also to never do it again.” 

Adric Riedel, a researcher at the American Museum of Natural History, said that his current dataset was taken from the SuperCOSMOS Sky Survey, which was photographed in the 1950s; researchers are still getting new things out of it. “We need to work smarter and take advantage of tools that others have built.”

David Hogg, an astronomy and physics professor at NYU, worked on a paper predicting the distribution of stars that have transiting exoplanets based on data from NASA’s Kepler planet-hunting space telescope.

“Kepler has been very generous with their data and astronomers have just started asking questions about it,” he said. “We’re guessing [based on observations] that the numbers of one-, two-, and three-planet systems puts a strong constraint on the true numbers. What we really want to do has to be simplified if we are going to finish it in one day.” [Gallery: A World of Kepler Planets]

Unfortunately, the paper wasn’t completed by the end of the Hack Day, but his group put together a literature review and a graph to model the assumptions about the data.

Hack Day results

Chris Beaumont, a graduate student from Harvard, worked on a project to speed up plots and models in Python. He used OpenGL, a platform used for 3D game graphics, to leverage its processing power and resolution. The results shown, at the end of Hack Day, were quite amazing. He’s now planning to create full-featured code for others to use.

And Megan Schwamb, who is part of the Planethunters.org team, created a new API for the site that retrieves data about possible planets orbiting binary stars.

One the most unconventional hacks attempted to take down and expose the flaws of MAST (Mikulski Archive for Space Telescopes), carried out by Micha Gorelick, a data scientist at Bit.ly.

Gorelick found that when MAST data parameters are entered to find celestial objects, the program didn’t check what type of data was being requested. This could lead to the ability of hackers to insert their own database commands to manipulate the catalog. Afterward, he contacted the folks at MAST, and they are currently addressing the issue.

Overall, the Hack Day was a success, according to those involved, not only because of the projects completed, but because of the discussions and information sharing that the event sparked.

Follow SPACE.com on Twitter @Spacedotcom. We’re also on Facebook & Google+. 

Copyright 2013 SPACE.com, a TechMediaNetwork company. All rights reserved. This material may not be published, broadcast, rewritten or redistributed.
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Karzai's U.S. visit a time for tough talk

The last time Presidents Obama and Karzai met was in May in Kabul, when they signed a pact regarding U.S. troop withdrawal.

STORY HIGHLIGHTS

• Afghan President Karzai meeting with President Obama in Washington this week


• Felbab-Brown: Afghan politics are corrupt; army not ready for 2014 troop pullout


• She says Taliban, insurgents, splintered army, corrupt officials are all jockeying for power


• U.S. needs to commit to helping Afghan security, she says, and insist corruption be wiped out

Editor's note: Vanda Felbab-Brown is a senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution. Her latest book is "Aspiration and Ambivalence: Strategies and Realities of Counterinsurgency and State-Building in Afghanistan."

(CNN) -- Afghan President Hamid Karzai is meeting this week with President Obama in Washington amid increasing ambivalence in the United States about what to do about the war in Afghanistan.

Americans are tired of the war. Too much blood and treasure has been spent. The White House is grappling with troop numbers for 2013 and with the nature and scope of any U.S. mission after 2014. With the persisting corruption and poor governance of the Afghan government and Karzai's fear that the United States is preparing to abandon him, the relationship between Kabul and Washington has steadily deteriorated.

As the United States radically reduces its mission in Afghanistan, it will leave behind a stalled and perilous security situation and a likely severe economic downturn. Many Afghans expect a collapse into civil war, and few see their political system as legitimate.

Karzai and Obama face thorny issues such as the stalled negotiations with the Taliban. Recently, Kabul has persuaded Pakistan to release some Taliban prisoners to jump-start the negotiations, relegating the United States to the back seat. Much to the displeasure of the International Security Assistance Force, the Afghan government also plans to release several hundred Taliban-linked prisoners, although any real momentum in the negotiations is yet to take place.

Vanda Felbab-Brown

Washington needs to be careful that negotiations are structured in a way that enhances Afghanistan's stability and is not merely a fig leaf for U.S. and NATO troop departure. Countering terrorism will be an important U.S. interest after 2014. The Taliban may have soured on al Qaeda, but fully breaking with the terror group is not in the Taliban's best interest. If negotiations give the insurgents de facto control of parts of the country, the Taliban will at best play it both ways: with the jihadists and with the United States.

Negotiations of a status-of-forces agreement after 2014 will also be on the table between Karzai and Obama. Immunity of U.S. soldiers from Afghan prosecution and control over detainees previously have been major sticking points, and any Afghan release of Taliban-linked prisoners will complicate that discussion.

Karzai has seemed determined to secure commitments from Washington to deliver military enablers until Afghan support forces have built up. The Afghan National Security Forces have improved but cannot function without international enablers -- in areas such as air support, medevac, intelligence and logistical assets and maintenance -- for several years to come. But Washington has signaled that it is contemplating very small troop levels after 2014, as low as 3,000. CNN reports that withdrawing all troops might even be considered.

Everyone is hedging their bets in light of the transition uncertainties and the real possibility of a major security meltdown after 2014. Afghan army commanders are leaking intelligence and weapons to insurgents; Afghan families are sending one son to join the army, one to the Taliban and one to the local warlord's militia.

Patronage networks pervade the Afghan forces, and a crucial question is whether they can avoid splintering along ethnic and patronage lines after 2014. If security forces do fall apart, the chances of Taliban control of large portions of the country and a civil war are much greater. Obama can use the summit to announce concrete measures -- such as providing enablers -- to demonstrate U.S. commitment to heading off a security meltdown. The United States and international security forces also need to strongly focus on countering the rifts within the Afghan army.

Assisting the Afghan army after 2014 is important. But even with better security, it is doubtful that Afghanistan can be stable without improvements in its government.

Afghanistan's political system is preoccupied with the 2014 elections. Corruption, serious crime, land theft and other usurpation of resources, nepotism, a lack of rule of law and exclusionary patronage networks afflict governance. Afghans crave accountability and justice and resent the current mafia-like rule. Whether the 2014 elections will usher in better leaders or trigger violent conflict is another huge question mark.

Emphasizing good governance, not sacrificing it to short-term military expediencies by embracing thuggish government officials, is as important as leaving Afghanistan in a measured and unrushed way -- one that doesn't jeopardize the fledgling institutional and security capacity that the country has managed to build up.

Karzai has been deaf and blind to the reality that reducing corruption, improving governance and allowing for a more pluralistic political system are essential for Afghanistan's stability. His visit provides an opportunity to deliver the message again -- and strongly.

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The opinions in this commentary are solely those of Vanda Felbab-Brown.

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1 dead, 1 wounded in front of Old Town convenience store

One man was shot to death and another seriously wounded in the Old Town neighborhood this evening, among at least six people shot since this afternoon in the city, authorities said.

A man, age 31, was shot and a man, age 20, was shot in the back in an attack about 6:15 p.m. in the 1300 block of North Sedgwick Street.

The 31-year-old was taken to Advocate Illinois Masonic Medical Center, where he was declared dead, said Chicago Police News Affairs Officer Daniel O'Brien, citing preliminary information. He was at least the second shooting victim to die today in Chicago.

The other victim was taken to Northwestern Memorial Hospital in serious-to-critical condition, said Chicago Fire Department spokesman Chief Joe Roccasalva.

The shooting took place in front of a convenience store, police said.

Neighbors said one man was shot inside the store, the other outside. They reported hearing as many as 10 gunshots and later saw one man being taken away in a neck brace, the other being revived by paramedics.

Family members said the man who was killed grew up in the neighborhood and in the Cabrini-Green public housing complex nearby, and recently had a child. Before heading to the hospital, family members huddled in the street near the shop, crying.

The convenience store is a typical neighborhood shop, selling basic food and household items as well as cell phones. Uniformed officers and detectives were inside with store employees this evening as other officers canvassed the area.

Neighbors said they are angered by what they say seems to be an increase in crime in the area.

“You can’t even go to the store without getting shot and killed,” said Chante Morris, 30, who lives nearby.

Another shooting wounded a 21-year-old man about 90 minutes after the homicide. A 21-year-old was shot in the 600 block of East 51st Street about 7 p.m., Chicago Police News Affairs Officer Ron Gaines said. He was taken to John H. Stroger Jr. Hospital in fair condition with wounds to his right forearm and hip, Gaines said.

Earlier, two people were shot and seriously wounded, apparently in the parking lot of a small strip mall on the Southwest Side this afternoon, authorities said.

The shooting took place just after 4 p.m. near 65th Street and Western Avenue, said Chicago Police News Affairs Officer Daniel O'Brien. Photos from the scene showed police checking the pavement of a strip mall on the southwest corner of 65th and Western for shell casings following the shooting.

Two men were wounded in the shooting and both were in serious condition, said Chicago Fire Department spokesman Chief Joe Roccasalva. One was taken to Advocate Christ Medical Center in Oak Lawn for treatment, the other to John H. Stroger Jr. Hospital, he said.

On the scene, a 20-year-old man was shot in the leg was considered in serious condition, and the other man, age 19, shot in the leg, was considered in good condition, O'Brien said. The older of the two was taken to John H. Stroger Jr. Hospital of Cook County and the younger to Advocate Christ Medical Center.

Another man, 24, was shot in the 13000 block of South Drexel Avenue in the Altgeld Gardens housing complex. Though police didn't find a crime scene where the man said he was shot, neighbors did report hearing gunfire. He drove to Roseland Hospital but was later transferred to Advocate Christ Medical Center in serious condition with a gunshot wound to the chest and three more to the left arm, police said.

chicagobreaking@tribune.com

Twitter: @ChicagoBreaking

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Exhausted Egyptians count cost of political turmoil

ZAGAZIG, Egypt (Reuters) - These days, craftsmen, shopkeepers and other inhabitants of the Egyptian Delta town of Zagazig are often too busy making ends meet to ponder why life seems to be getting harder every day.

But when, exhausted, they finally come home and sit down to their evening meal, conversations inevitably turn to growing hardship and the frightening prospect of cuts in food subsidies as the economy slides further into crisis.

With their patience already stretched after years of upheaval, Egyptians - from the capital Cairo to smaller towns like Zagazig - appear to be nearing the point where discontent could explode into a new wave of unrest.

"There is no security. There is nothing," said Soheir Abdel Moneim, a retired school teacher, as she hurried through an open-air market in Zagazig in search of vegetables she could afford.

"The pound is falling. Everything is more expensive. Is there anything that has not become more expensive?" she asked with a shrug, as traders on bicycles loaded with their wares dodged through the chaos of the market.

Nearby, a torn poster of President Mohamed Mursi beams from the wall of a crumbling brick house, with the words "Liars! Liars!" scrawled over his face.

The mood of growing nervousness is bad news for Mursi, who faces a parliamentary election in coming months, and a new round of political feuding that could pitch Egypt back into civil strife.

Egypt's economy, once strong and popular among investors, has been in tatters since the revolt of 2011 that ousted Hosni Mubarak and shook the country to its foundations.

Disagreements over a new national constitution late last year triggered violent protests, dealing another blow to the economy and eroding trust in Mursi's government.

A country where cuts in food subsidies have caused riots in the past now faces the risk of further upheaval as Mursi prepares to impose austerity measures in order to obtain a desperately needed $4.8 billion loan from the International Monetary Fund.

In Zagazig, people worry about the future.

Farouk Sarhan, the 74-year-old manager of a shop selling women's clothes, said sales were already down by almost 50 percent from just a few weeks ago.

"No one is selling or buying. I had more activity last year," he said, stubbing out a cigarette with a deep sigh in his tiny store lined with mannequins of veiled women.

"Customers are not buying as much as before because of the economic situation."

The price of fresh food often goes up in winter but shoppers in the Zagazig market said recent increases had been steep, with tomatoes and cauliflower about 50 percent dearer than at the start of the year.

WHAT NEXT?

Egypt has been on the ropes since investors and tourists fled after the revolt, when people rose up to demand their freedom and also an end to economic policies they said simply lined the pockets of the rich.

On the economic front, the picture remains grim, although Qatar's decision to lend Egypt another $2 billion has offered some respite.

Foreign reserves are dwindling and the pound has been hitting new lows daily. Food and raw materials from abroad have become more expensive, hurting businesses and families in a desert nation which relies on imports to feed itself.

As in other parts of Egypt, people in Zagazig see complex economic trends in terms of the daily hardships they must endure, and it is Mursi's government and his Muslim Brotherhood allies who get the blame.

"Mursi doesn't feel our grievances," said Emad, a man in his late 30s who sells traditional Egyptian clothes by the side of a dusty street. He said he had been forced to raise prices to cover rising costs, upsetting his customers.

Pointing to one of the black embroidered gowns, Emad said: "We used to sell this for 35 pounds ($5.40). Now it's 45 pounds. We didn't raise the prices. Traders did.

"Very few people are buying. I used to sell 50 pieces a day, and now I sell 15 or 20. Today I still haven't sold anything."

Reliable opinion polls are unavailable in Egypt and it is hard to gauge how widespread people's views are. But in Zagazig, most of those interviewed by Reuters echoed Emad's feelings.

Economists worry that continued turmoil could prompt people and businesses to convert their savings into dollars en masse - a risky process known as dollarisation which has caused trouble in many emerging market crises before.

But in Zagazig, people laughed at the idea, saying only the rich could afford to buy foreign currency. "Dollars?" asked Nabil, a local trader, as others burst into laughter. "Give me some dollars! Of course we don't have any!"

SUPPORT FOR MURSI

But some were prepared to give Mursi a chance.

In the nearby village of al-Adwa, where the future president grew up in the family of a local farmer, brick walls and fences were plastered with posters of Mursi.

A crowd of farmers standing by the side of a dirt track cutting through the village shook their fists and shouted "Mursi! Mursi!" when asked about their political views.

But even in Adwa, where Mursi appeared to enjoy rock-solid support, locals said sudden increase in taxes or abrupt cuts to fuel or food subsidies would cost him dearly.

"If that happens that would be the worst thing. What am I going to do as a farmer?" said Said Youssef, his hands black from working the land. "Where are we going to get the money?"

Another man, Aly Saber, 65, said fertilizer prices had gone up by 50 Egyptian pounds in the past year alone, making his business less profitable.

"Things are tough here in the rural areas," he said as others nodded in agreement. "Everything is becoming more expensive."

Mohamed Gamal, the 42-year-old owner of a tiny shop selling kitchen appliances, said business was so bad that he would sometimes go for days without a single customer.

"I import goods all the time. Prices have gone up by 10-40 percent since the revolution. It's gone up even more in recent weeks," said Gamal, who, Like Mursi, grew up in Adwa.

He said his neighbors were suspicious about why he had to keep raising his prices.

"People just don't believe me," he said, hunched over his desk, cigarette smoke swirling above stacks of unsold trays, cups and ironing boards. "They are not convinced why things are getting more expensive. I buy them, and they stack up."

($1 = 6.4809 Egyptian pounds)

(Writing by Maria Golovnina; Editing by Giles Elgood)

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Stock index futures signal lower Wall Street open

LONDON (Reuters) - U.S. stock index futures pointed to a slightly lower Wall Street open on Tuesday, with futures for the S&P 500, the Dow Jones and the Nasdaq 100 down 0.1 to 0.3 percent.

Alcoa and Monsanto are two of the first large companies to report quarterly results as the earnings season begins. Wall Street expects both the companies to show improved profit from a year ago.

ICSC/Goldman Sachs release chain store sales for the week ended January 5 at 1245 GMT. In the previous week, sales rose 0.6 percent.

Samsung Electronics said it likely earned a quarterly profit of $8.3 billion as it sold close to 500 handsets a minute and as demand picked up for the flat screens it makes for mobile devices, including those for rival Apple Inc products.

Redbook releases its Retail Sales Index of department and chain store sales for January at 1355 GMT. In the previous month, sales rose 0.1 percent.

Sears Holdings Corp said late on Monday Chief Executive Louis D'Ambrosio will step down for family health reasons after the U.S. retailer reported a 1.8 percent decline in quarter-to-date sales at stores open at least a year.

National Federation of Independent Business releases small business optimism index for December at 1230 GMT. In the previous month, the index read 87.5.

The FTSEurofirst 300 <.fteu3> index of top European shares turned flat in morning session on Tuesday after opening lower, with gains in telecom stocks offsetting declines in financial and mining shares.

U.S. stocks lost ground on Monday, as investors drew back from recent gains that lifted the S&P 500 to a five-year high, in anticipation of sluggish growth in corporate profits.

The Dow Jones industrial average <.dji> dropped 50.92 points, or 0.38 percent, to 13,384.29. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index <.spx> fell 4.58 points, or 0.31 percent, to 1,461.89. The Nasdaq Composite Index <.ixic> lost 2.84 points, or 0.09 percent, to 3,098.81.

(Reporting by Atul Prakash; Editing by Alistair Lyon)

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